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But another narrative is that the Academy voters (not a monolith, but still, of like minds) don’t like to be told what to do or won’t want to give in to the Selma snub narrative and go elsewhere. Indeed, before the Selma controversy, the smart money was on Adam Levine’s rendition of “Lost Stars” to take the gold. Indeed, while “Glory” is deserving on its own merit, “Lost Stars” is the central, pivotal part of the movie it is in (and being a plot-furthering device is one of the supposed eligibility criteria in this race). But the winner isn’t picked on the basis of eligibility criteria. It is, like all the other races, a popularity contest. I would give the Oscar to Begin Again, and it is your most likely upset, but the smart money today is on Selma’s “Glory” for the actual win.

Best Sound Mixing/Best Sound Editing

The conventional wisdom is that musicals always sneak into the Best Sound Mixing race because they feature the difficulty of combining music, vocals, dialogue, and effects. Despite that, I erred in predicting that Into the Woods would get in to Sound Mixing, and it didn’t.

This year, the categories match almost one for one. Interstellar, Unbroken, Birdman, and American Sniper landed nods in both races. The Hobbit received its sole nod in Sound Editing, and Whiplash got a deserved nod for Sound Mixing. I would eliminate the Hobbit first. It’s not that a split editing/mixing win doesn’t happen, but combined wins are far more common here than not, and lone wins are even rarer still when the movie hasn’t been at least nominated in the other race. You would think that similar logic would take Whiplash out of it for Sound Editing, but the sound is crucial and noteworthy in that pivotal last scene, so watch out for a Whiplash upset there.

As for the rest of the lot - as usual, Best Picture nominees tend to have an advantage here, with Slumdog Millionaire being the prime example of a movie that won arguably undeserved sound awards. It’s either a chance to spread the wealth among the nominees, or a chance to shower a beloved movie with Oscars as they did Slumdog. This discards Unbroken, which is not a Best Picture nominee, is not beloved, and in any case does not feature particularly riveting sounds outside the initial airplane shooting and ocean thunderstorm scenes.

Birdman was as a surprise nominee in both races, showing that the movie has broad support in all branches of the Academy. While that may speak to Birdman’s broader chances in the Best Picture race, I simply cannot see it pulling a victory in either category here. It does feature subtle but ever-present sound effects, both in its surreal and continuous-shot scenes, as well as in its multiple transitions. But I still think Birdman’s sound is too subtle for the non-sound guys in the Academy. I would not check that box in any ballot for either category.

Interstellar is to me (no surprise) the deserving winner in both categories. Indeed, without the presence of the likely winner, I would think Interstellar wins here both because “the loudest movie” always wins sound is a moniker I buy into, but also because the sound is impossible to ignore. And while the movie wasn’t as beloved as I would have wanted, it also wasn’t as panned as, say, Unbroken. Moreover, Interstellar had the challenge of creating the most difficult sounds and in my view pulled off the “sounds of silence in space” gimmick much more faithfully than Gravity did (where Alfonso Cuarón tried to use the trick of sound from the perspective of inside the ship, which Nolan strictly resisted). On top of that, Interstellar had to combine a challenging and ever-present soundtrack with packed dialogue, making it a worthy contender in Sound Mixing. To me, therefore, Interstellar should win both races, and will remain the highest threat for an upset.

But, the safe money here is clearly the war movie and Best Picture nominee American Sniper. War movies have done well here of late: Lone Survivor and The Hurt Locker swept these categories. I don’t find the sound editing in the movie that impressive - I would think they would have tired of the gunfire effects and in any case thought Fury was a more deserving nominee here. Aside from the gunshot sequence combining dialogue on the phone, and the climatic sandstorm scene, the soundtrack is mostly muted and the dialogue is always deadpan.

But set aside my own personal views: American Sniper is a respected Best Picture nominee that has the strong support of the so-called “steak eaters” group within the Academy. It did very well in theaters and in doing so it essentially earned at least one or two Oscars - the Oscars may ignore box office now for Best Picture, but they will reward a movie that does well with at least one or two below-the-line wins. See Gravity and Avatar and Inception, etc. The possibility that it will earn even more prestigious accolades remains a real one, but right now I would say it is in line to clearly win both Sound categories. Interstellar is a potential spoiler in both, but I have a stronger feeling that Whiplash, which has passionate support, could pull an upset in Sound Editing.

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