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On to handicapping some of the remaining races to cover. Let’s do the three sealed acting races today along with writing, and leave the competitive Picture, Director, and Actor last.

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons has won everything under the sun and this category is a gimme on Oscar night. He also happens to give the best of the performances. My only surprise is that Tom Wilkinson’s bravura portrayal of LBJ in Selma didn’t make it, but I suppose that since his character was the epicenter of the silly controversy surrounding the movie, they just stayed away. His spot instead went to the somewhat dialed-in performance Robert Duvall gave in The Judge, who I suppose is happy to be back in contention after 15 years.

Mark Ruffalo also made the cut and is perhaps an overall underrated actor, but I found his performance in Foxcatcher overwhelmed by Steve Carrell’s sinister lead, and doubt Ruffalo has a shot. Nor does Ethan Hawke for his 12-year portrayal of a wayward father in Boyhood. There is really no “Oscar-worthy” scene in the movie for him.

If anyone had an outside shot, it would be Ed Norton for his magnificent supporting performance in Birdman. Norton is overdue an Oscar win, but it likely won’t come this year for the manic, infuriating actor he portrays in the Best Picture front-runner. The real question is whether they will give Birdman Best Picture without an acting award - and if it’s not in this category, then where will it be?

In any case, lead roles disguised as supporting have an advantage here, and this year is no different for J.K. Simmons’ portrayal of the villainous teacher in Whiplash. Villains, too, seem to find a lot of love here of late. This is the easiest call of the night.

Best Supporting Actress

Nor should there be too much suspense regarding the outcome of this race, where my only disappointment was not hearing Rene Russo’s name called for her exacting portrayal of a ruthless TV executive in Nightcrawler, reminiscent of Faye Dunaway’s Oscar-winning performance in Network.

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