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Instead, Laura Dern’s portrayal of the lead character’s mother in Wild took the spot for her loopy, walking-in-clouds performance. The nomination is the end of the road for her, however. The same can be said for Keira Knightley’s portrayal of the lead female character in The Imitation Game. Knightley arguably gives the best performance of her career as the strong-willed, independent woman in a male-dominated industry, and as Turing’s emotional crutch. This won’t be Knightley’s year but future nominations are assured.

Meryl Streep, in her 19th nomination (but only fourth in this category), will not walk away with her fourth Oscar for her performance as The Witch (arguably, the lead) in Into The Woods. Streep gives, as usual, an outstanding performance, but the competition is too thick. Instead, Streep will extend her record as the person with the most losses in the acting categories of all time.

The real surprise for me was Emma Stone’s breakthrough performance as the emotionally conflicted, aggressive daughter of the lead character in Birdman. Based on merit, I would give the award to Stone for her nuanced and out-of-comfort zone portrayal. She really gave it all and I hope this is not her last nomination.

But this year, the category belongs to Patricia Arquette in a cakewalk. Again, category fraud has something to do with it, as she obviously plays the lead female character. The fact that Arquette allowed herself to be filmed as she aged and gained weight, without much makeup or fuzz, also has become a source of praise and part of the narrative behind the award. She has, like Simmons, won all precursors and given great speeches, so the Oscar is all but hers.

Best Actress

The consensus is that Julianne Moore will finally win a long overdue Oscar, and I am certainly hoping this becomes true. Still, one is always queasy in this category with the old Academy, who just loves to give it to younger girls. The year that Marion Cotillard (who is nominated again this year) won was one such year. But perhaps part of the reason was that her main contender, Julie Christie, was a past winner, and Cotillard arguably gave the best performance that year.

This is a bit harder to fit into that box. Moore does not necessarily give her career best performance in the emotionally exhausting Still Alice. Nor did a lot of people see that movie. On the other hand, Cotillard’s realistic portrayal of the lead in Two Days, One Night, was also not necessarily seen. But Cotillard does give, as usual, a full embodiment of her character, and is a worthy nominee.

Reese Witherspoon also returned to the category for the second time, and is the other past winner here. Her performance in Wild is certainly worthy of a nomination, as Witherspoon conveys the varied depth of feelings - depression, anxiety, lust, disillusionment, resistance, and valor - necessary to the part. She’s likely running in fourth place this year, but I’m sure ecstatic to see her receive only her second nod after her win on the first try for Walk the Line.

Felicity Jones is, to me, the least deserving of the contenders. Her portrayal of Stephen Hawking’s wife in The Theory of Everything didn’t seem that innovative. I would have preferred to see her spot go to Jennifer Aniston for Cake, but Best Picture contention is no laughing matter (and Jones is the only one of the five to have that distinction, so surely she will get some votes).

To me, however, the best performance by far is Rosamund Pike’s Amy Dunne in Gone Girl. Chilling, defying, austere, and sinister, Pike inhabits the bedeviled, insane, and disturbingly sympathetic crazy lady in David Fincher’s Gone Girl. She has been critically acclaimed since the moment the movie opened, and has even won several critical awards (Moore, by contrast, has won relatively few).

If this were a merit-based award only, Pike would win easily. But we all know that sometimes they like to atone for past mistakes, and who can blame them? If I had a ballot I would likely also mark down Julianne Moore because she is criminally overdue, and hopefully the correction will finally come this year. If there is an upset, I’ll just hope it’s Pike and not one of the two women who already have a statuette, or the one who is in my opinion the least deserving of one this year.

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