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In any case, here goes nothing.

Best Visual Effects: I’m sticking to Interstellar because it is the most “prestigious” of the nominees. Some think Planet of the Apes can steal it.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper (consensus pick).

Best Sound Mixing: My gut has been saying Whiplash all along and I’m sticking with it as the objective best of the bunch. Most of the times Mixing goes to the Editing winner, so picking American Sniper here may be smarter if you think they just tick them off.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel (the consensus pick, but Guardians could and should spoil it).

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (consensus pick).

Best Art Direction: The Grand Budapest Hotel (consensus pick).

Best Original Song: “Glory” from Selma. People always want to make noise here - they did so last year betting against “Let It Go” and lost. I wouldn’t go out on a limb here.

Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything, but Grand Budapest is making a move here and it could win it if it just sweeps the techs. But Theory’s soundtrack is sweeping and the key emotional component of the movie.

Best Cinematography: Birdman (consensus pick).

Best Film Editing: Here’s my first limb of the night: I’m switching to Whiplash. It’s the most obviously edited movie and it has a lot of love. The safer pick is Boyhood.

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida. This seemed like a prohibitive favorite but a vocal minority is saying Wild Tales. I wouldn’t go on that limb but do with that info what you will.

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour. It’s won everything. And yet, many correctly point out that important documentaries have lost to feel good ones since they opened up voting to the entire membership. So I suppose Finding Vivian Maier could be this year’s Searching for Sugarman. I’m sticking with Ed Snowden.

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (consensus pick).

Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call. I may switch this in my BOP predictions to Boogalo and Graham, as it has the pulling of the heartstrings component.

Best Animated Short: I can’t stop wavering between sticking with the Disney train (Feast) and switching to the emotional/artsy one (The Dam Keeper). Last year, switching would have been a good idea. But I’m sticking with Disney because Feast has the heartstring element that last year’s Get a Horse! did not have.

Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One (consensus pick, but I can see Joanna or Our Curse).

Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel (but Birdman is a close second if it’s really a Best Picture frontrunner).

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game. This is one of the hardest calls of the night. Whiplash could really surprise here and each passing minute a pundit jumps ship for Whiplash.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood, overwhelming consensus).

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash, overwhelming consensus).

Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice, overwhelming consensus).

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). I don’t know what to say. It feels like Keaton should win, particularly if Birdman is going to win Picture. I just can’t bring myself to go against the stats.

Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman). If there is going to be a split and some recognition of Boyhood in a major category, this appears ripe for the taking for Linklater’s extraordinary achievement. Still, most of those predicting a split are saying Boyhood for Picture and Birdman for director. Trying to predict a split can lead to two categories wrong, so I’m marking Birdman for both.

Best Picture: Birdman.

What’s wrong with this picture? I’m predicting Birdman to win Picture, Director, and Cinematography, but somehow lose Actor and Screenplay. That feels off and it seems wrong. But I suppose a three Oscar win for Birdman does make sense in a close year - Argo and Crash did it in their respective narrow races.

So take that for what it’s worth. I’m also picking Grand Budapest to win anywhere between four and five Oscars, and Whiplash as many as four. If my predictions pan out, in fact, all eight of the Best Picture nominees will win at least one Oscar. That wouldn’t be a bad outcome overall.

But I still see a Boyhood win as an absolute stunner: Birdman has all the guild support. If anything, I have a feeling Boyhood could surprise in Director. It’s making more and more sense: it’s a close race, almost a tie, like last year Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave, so why not give Picture to one and Director to the other? The problem is I can’t figure out which one goes to which, so at least you’ll get one right if there is a split and you pick the same for both.

That’s all folks. Enjoy the Oscars!

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