Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
June 18, 2015
Kim Hollis: Jurassic World just became the first film to earn half a billion dollars in a weekend. Do you think that this $511.8 million global opening weekend record stands until Star Wars arrives in December?
Edwin Davies: It depends on whether Star Wars opens in China. A huge chunk of Jurassic World's success this weekend was driven by a huge opening in China, and currently no Chinese release in planned for Star Wars. If that changes, it could overtake Jurassic World if audiences aren't too gun-shy after the prequels (and if opening around Christmas doesn't deflate the opening too much), but I'm not sure it would be able to do it without China.
Felix Quinonez: I think that record will stand even after Star Wars opens. It's only been 10 years since Revenge of the Sith and the prequels must have at least turned some people off. I mean it won't stop me from seeing the new one but I imagine that at least a portion of the target audience is sitting on the fence for the new one. I guess the reviews will also play a role in that factor.
Ben Gruchow: I think it stands past Star Wars; Edwin hits the nail on the head. The combination of the Christmas opening, the reputation hit the brand has taken with the prequels, and especially the lack of an opening in China are all liabilities to one degree or another. I'd add one more potential liability to the list: those who don't know who J.J. Abrams is aren't necessarily going to understand why the new movie is likely to be any different from the prequels, and the prequels have a toxic reputation even among those who aren't intimately familiar with the Star Wars franchise. Those who do know who J.J. Abrams is aren't necessarily going to trust him wholeheartedly following a decade and a half of mystery-box approaches to his franchise ventures (see: Alias, Lost, M:I 3, Fringe, Star Trek, etc). Almost none of his work is bad, but all of them engendered to one degree or another a commitment to a multi-installment story; I've given my thoughts on audience feelings toward multi-installment franchises and where they might be heading. The Force Awakens is going to be big, but I don't think it's going to take down this record.
David Mumpower: I understand the arguments being made. They're sound and reasonable. I do, however, disagree. I'm shaving with Occam's Razor here. Even though I could care less about it, this is Star Wars we're talking about, and everybody knows George Lucas isn't involved. We've strangely reached a point where the creator of this beloved franchise is cheered for leaving. Imagine if the same thing occurred with George RR Martin and Game of Thrones or JK Rowling with Harry Potter. It's that odd a turn of events yet it's unquestionably true.
With a clean slate and a fresh start, Star Wars immediately becomes what it was postured to be with the prequels. It's again the apex predator of cinema. Yes, I even include dinosaurs in that. While the China concern is a huge one, I expect a deal to get brokered simply because the financials dictate it. As we speak, the first six films are playing for the first time in China at the Shanghai International Film Festival. I don't think they take that step unless they're trying to build the audience for The Force Awakens. What's interesting to me about Star Wars is that it could feasibly perform in the inverse from most recent release. Its first week in theaters in North America could feasibly be its best in the world. It'll behave like Avatar, with every day of box office functioning as another massive Friday-esque performance. I don't expect Star Wars 7 to break the domestic record due to holiday deflation, but I think its global take over its first three *and* seven days will surpass Jurassic World.
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