They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The 2015 Oscar Race Begins at Telluride
By J. Don Birnam
September 8, 2015
Strong Debut for Steve Jobs and Black Mass
Another highly-anticipated movie coming into the festivals (the centerpiece of the New York Film Festival, no less), was Danny Boyle's eponymous biopic Steve Jobs. Two others have tried and mostly failed to tell the story of the famed tech genius, but it seems as if Boyle (of Slumdog Millionaire fame), with the help of another masterful script by Aaron Sorkin (some are calling it the sequel to the brilliant The Social Network), may have come closer than all before him. It helps, of course, that he counts the supremely talented Michael Fassbender in the title role, propped up by yet another magnificent performance by Kate Winslet. Fassbender is now a serious contender for a slot in the admittedly crowded Best Actor field.
The reviews coming out of Telluride have been mixed-to-positive, but I recall a certain Birdman receiving warm to tepid reviews in the Colorado air, only to come from behind and snatch the top prize in February. The movie did what it had to do: not be a complete failure and generate sufficient interest to propel it to the festival circuit and into the second stage of the race when the critic awards begin. Right now, Best Actor, Screenplay, and Picture nominations seem like safe bets.
Meanwhile, another talked-about biopic landed a coveted spot in the Telluride lineup - Black Mass. The Johnny Depp story of Irish crime boss Whitey Bulger certainly made an impression this weekend, particularly for Depp's strong performance and the action-packed, treacherous and poignantly violent narrative of the gangster's life. Depp is clearly now in contention for a Best Actor spot (and a Sandra Bullock-type award for him is not out of the question), but the movie will have to be taken seriously and stomached as it marches through the festival circuit, with Toronto being its next destination.
Is the Best Foreign Language Film Race Over?
Another movie selected for a prestigious spot at Telluride was the Hungarian Holocaust drama Son of Saul. Since winning the Grand Prix at Cannes, the heart-wrenching drama that tells the story of a concentration camp prisoner who is determined to seek a proper burial for a young Jewish boy has been met with raving reviews to accompany the steady flow of tears. It has been somewhat crudely joked before that Holocaust movies guarantee an Oscar payola, and we shall soon see if that maxim remains true in today's Academy.
Although the Best Foreign Language Film race is notoriously difficult to predict (the nomination process is arcane and convoluted, involving several bake-off rounds that end with a committee exercising ultimate authority to slot nominees in a sort of “save us from ourselves” paean), it seems difficult to foresee Hungary not finding itself among the final five come January, and perhaps all the way at the top when all is said and done.
The Best of the Rest
Jobs and Bulger may have grabbed headlines alongside Carol, but as the autumn gave way to cold in Telluride, a number of other films announced that they were here to stay. The entrancing Spotlight, about the Boston Globe's investigation into the Boston Archdiocese's cover-up of priest sexual abuse scandals, will surely resonate with critics down the line. Michael Keaton returns for another try at the Academy Award, and the plot is entrancing, riveting, and still relevant. Other movies gave us at least potential Best Actress nominees, with Brie Larson's haunting performance in the locked-in-a-room drama Room and Carey Mulligan's lead turn in the self-explanatory Suffragette providing yet another set of strong performance by actresses this year. I expect we will be hearing their names a lot as fall turns to winter.
What's Next: Toronto and Beyond
There is no rest for the weary - as the tents are packed in at Telluride, attention shifts to north of the 49th parallel. The Toronto Film Festival starts Thursday, with movies from The Martian to The Danish Girl slated to make long-awaited debuts (the Danish Girl premiered to a ten-minute standing ovation in Venice, but will make its North American premiere in Toronto next week). And given Toronto's much deeper lineup than Telluride's, it is invariably the case that this or that performance, this or that movie, generates unforeseen buzz. Unlike the stale and predictable final phase of the race, where most awards become fait accompli, twists and turns abound in phase one.
Looking past Toronto, one can anticipate the debuts of movies like The Walk and Spielberg's Bridge of Spies at the Alice Tully Hall in New York. Undoubtedly, some of these movies will be duds and quickly fade from contention, but the winner of the People's Choice at Toronto and the opening night screener at New York have received Best Picture nominations in most of the past five years.
Stay tuned.
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