Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 27, 2015
Kim Hollis: The Last Witch Hunter was the best of our new openers this weekend, finishing in fourth place and earning $10.8 million. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is terrible and not all that surprising. Pretty much every response I read to the trailers said that it looked like a straight-to-DVD, and the reviews and word-of-mouth that backed up. What's most interesting about this result is that it confirms what a lot of people have long suspected, which is that Vin Diesel is not a draw outside of The Fast and the Furious series, which should have been obvious after films like The Chronicles of Riddick and Babylon A.D., but people might have forgotten it in the post-Guardians of the Galaxy, post-Furious 7 glow.
Ben Gruchow: $25-26 million total domestic gross is about what I think of it - if it's lucky and doesn't crater next weekend. Surprisingly, the multiplier's not horrible. Still, the most I could ever see it getting out of the North American box office is $50 million or so, and that's assuming two or three ridiculously good holds.
On a qualitative level, it's probably less than the movie deserves. I saw it on Friday in a nearly-empty XD theater; it's goofy, silly, and shallow, but I've also just described half of a typical summer-movie slate. It doesn't commit the cardinal sin that so many other genre B-movies do, which is to try too hard to evoke a mood or resonance when the script hasn't come close to earning it.
The Last Witch Hunter tries about as hard as the concept warrants, and that makes a difference. Most of the movie exists on a plane that's two or three levels more entertaining than I expected it to be. There are aspects - particularly production design, creature design, and the energy of the visual effects - that are objectively impressive. I found the storytelling and character interaction to be, while broad, observant and functional within the world the movie asks the audience to accept.
And that's one of the key reasons that I think the movie failed so hard with both audiences and critics. It's an oddity, but not a particularly risky or daring one, and it doesn't stick the landing on all the aspects of its universe. It's a lot harder to get a viewer to buy into the fabric of an odd movie's world when it's sort of a ragged and scruffy one than when it's thoroughly imagined, complete, and comprehensive. I felt the same way back in August about American Ultra, and that one bombed, too (though not nearly to the same extent or at the same cost).
Ryan Kyle: This opening is pretty terrible, but it's also just what I expected, so it's not that jaw-dropping of a flop. While Vin Diesel's resume is littered with eye-popping grosses, outside of his comfort projects, his name doesn't hold much weight. His last non-franchise project was way back in 2008 with Babylon A.D., which had a similar opening (and critical reception). Opening within range of other fantasy-horror-action projects like I, Frankenstein and Season of the Witch, the final gross shouldn't find itself reach much past $25 million, as it will likely crater next weekend and completely evaporate the weekend after next when Spectre hits.
Everyone walking away from this project should remain unscathed, outside of whichever production company is primarily saddled with the $70 million+ budget.
Out of all of the new openings this weekend going to VOD in a truncated window, this would have been the most interesting title to select and analyze given its big star, the more durable fantasy-action genre, and its goofy appeal. Some people might have been willing to spend $6.99 on renting it (split between friends) as opposed to $15 for a single ticket at the theater.
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