BOP Staff Star Wars Predictions
By BOP Staff
December 17, 2015
Tim Briody: A few of us here have been discussing The Force Awakens' box office prospects internally for months, and we all pretty much accepted that there's no way it breaks any sort of all time opening records. The biggest reason is because it's December. It just doesn't work that way. It's about the marathon (as much as 10-12 days or so is a marathon) instead of the sprint. The biggest movie of all time, Avatar, opened to a mere $77 million. It was the next two weeks that turned it into a monster.
I grant you that the idea of box office dead zones is a self-fulfilling prophecy. American Sniper opening to nearly $90 million this January is pretty much the best proof of that. If people want to see something, they will, no matter when it's released. As anticipation for The Force Awakens has ramped up in the last several months, I admit that what I figured would be a $100 million opening weekend (largely based on nothing, I just figured that was the absolute floor) has steadily crept higher as the trailer was released and well received, and now with initial reports that it's not the prequels all over again, I think I have to push it even higher.
Jurassic World is safe, but not without a fight. Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens to $195 million.
Pete Kilmer: I think that Star Wars: The Force Awakens has a *great* shot at beating Jurassic World's opening weekend. Now to what extent I'm not sure, but north of $215 Million for the weekend is my guess. And it's for a couple of reasons that I believe this.
Having Harrison Ford and Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill return to the franchise after years and years of them saying there's no chance is *HUGE*. Especially with Ford, who slagged off the character and the movies for decades. To have him come back *AND* to do the amount of publicity he's doing indicates a level of quality that he's happy with. I think, subconsciously that resonates with first generation movie fans who have shared this story with their kids and grandkids.
Kathleen Kennedy put together a team of creatives that not only helped create the original movies (Lawrence Kasdan) but got a director who not only grew up on the movies but was mentored by Lucas's best friend Steven Spielberg. JJ is fan but he's a moviemaker and storyteller first. Putting all those factors into a pot and mixing them together with the original stars AND some new actors to engage the newer fans, strikes all the right notes with the dedicated fans who've been longing for a story that continues the original trilogy.
Daron Aldridge: I don't think there is a single way to make this prediction and be safe. Either I go low and be on the wrong side of fan ire or overestimate and look as ridiculous as George Lucas's penchant for prequel CGI. Taking a step back to 1999, when the last batch of “new” Star Wars films unfurled with the naïve notion that Lucas could recapture that magic, that film swung below the predictions for the Friday to Wednesday frame by an phenomenal for 1999 $65 million (plus another $51 mil from the opening Wednesday and Thursday). Despite "experts" thinking it would top the then record three-day haul of $72 mil for Jurassic Park: The Lost World, Episode I was 10% below that record. My convoluted thinking would like to think the exact opposite happens this time around with Star Wars: The Force Awakens surpassing the now-record opening of Jurassic World ($208.8 million) by the same 10%. That would give Episode VII an opening debut of $229.7. Let's see if the box office pendulum swings back to the side of the force from the prehistoric.
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