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Matthew Huntley: I am predicting STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS will open with $220-$225 million between Thursday night and Sunday, with $42 million coming from Thursday night alone. Both of these figures would allow the film to set new records. My reasoning behind these numbers is: 1) It's STAR WARS, a movie franchise that's inherently beloved, enormously popular, and one that hasn't seen a live-action installment in 10 years, so fans are ready for a resurgence, despite the last three not living up to the originals; 2) The early reviews suggest it's one of the most critically acclaimed films so far this year, so even non-STAR WARS fans may find a reason to attend simply because they're looking for a high-quality popcorn movie; 3) The list of titles to come out of Hollywood this fall, as far as mainstream fare goes, has been somewhat weak and disappointing, from SPECTRE to HUNGER GAMES, so the masses are ready for a well-known brand to actually deliver; 4) The holiday season is ramping up and it's one of the most popular times of the year, if not the most popular, to see a movie with friends, family, etc. as a way to relax, get together and wind the year down, and with so many showings, STAR WARS will be the obvious choice; 5) The hype: I can see virtually anyone going to see STAR WARS just for the sake of being in the know and feeling like they're a part of collective consciousness.


Kim Hollis: So, I’ve been calculating and recalculating these numbers over the last several days. On Sunday, I was thinking the film would make $185 million or so. That was as high as I could reasonably get it based on numbers modeling. And here’s the thing - $185 million would be an *amazing* December accomplishment. It’s more than $100 million higher than the previous December record holder, and we know that traditional box office behavior in the month of December is unique. People have family gatherings and shopping and parties and other priorities, which means that they don’t necessarily get out to movies during their opening weekend, but they support them hugely throughout the course of the holiday season.

But I guess I’m just throwing it all out the window. Star Wars: The Force Awakens *feels* different. Logically, I know that what I’m going to predict is statistically unprecedented. Yet, I think there is a mighty confluence of events swirling together. The film is receiving rapturous reviews and viewer approval. Obviously, The Force Awakens could have been fine even with mediocre or negative reviews, but we’re talking high levels of praise. There was a time when people didn’t pay attention to such things, but those days are past. In our social media dominated environment, word-of-mouth is crucial.

Second, I think there is something to what Matt mentioned when he said that audiences have been disappointed by a lot of the tentpole releases in the third and fourth quarter of 2015. People *want* something they can go see in theaters – and they particularly want something they can go see with their families.

And of course, we simply can’t ignore that Disney has ramped the hype machine on this thing to 11. Star Wars is everywhere. It’s unavoidable. And people (for the most part) don’t seem to be getting tired of it! They just want to talk about it more. The topic has come up in conversation for me in the most unexpected places. When I was at a lunch talking about holiday plans, one person mentioned how hyped up her nieces and nephews are for Star Wars. The moment “Star Wars” passed her lips, everyone at the table nodded their heads. I’m starting to feel, to quote The Matrix’s Agent Smith, like I’m hearing the sound of inevitability.

If I look at the math of it, it would seem most reasonable to apply the numbers from the first Hobbit to the weekend, with even a little depleted due to the much larger opening. But then I started thinking to myself, why isn’t Avatar a good model? It opened the same weekend (to the day, in fact – both are December 18th). Alternately, The Hobbit got its start a week and a half ahead of Christmas. Avatar was 82% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes at the time of its release; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was 65% fresh. The Force Awakens is 94% fresh – and that’s with a remarkable 219 reviews counted. So, it’s definitely riding a stronger wave than The Hobbit, and is even more beloved than Avatar.

But like Avatar, it also has the benefit of extreme interest in something extraordinary. In the case of Avatar, it was a film that used 3D as we’d never seen it done before. For Star Wars, it’s the return of Han Solo, Princess Leia, and Luke Skywalker in a film that has fans of all age just dying to go to theaters. I harbor no illusions that it has the kind of hold Avatar did on its first Saturday and Sunday (5% and 3%). But I also don’t think it will be as low as The Hobbit (25% and 29%).

Instead, here’s what I’m looking at. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will come in with the biggest Thursday night ever at $50 million. Then, I think the “true” Friday should be around $60 million, giving it a reported Friday number (which combines sneaks and Friday) of $110 million. Saturday will decline. Obviously there’s fanboy rush, and people have other things to do during the Christmas season (although I expect some urgency to see the film in order to avoid spoilers). I’d expect it to hold that $60 million or so on Saturday, as that seems to be the pattern for comparable films from the final Hobbit to the final Harry Potter (which is the current record holder for Thursday sneak previews, by the way). Sunday would give us $51 million, which all combines for a weekend total of $221 million. I can’t believe I’m saying it. But there you have it.

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