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Best Costume Design

You knew something big was afoot when past winner Jacqueline West’s The Revenant made the cut here. I don’t think they’ve ever gone for a movie like this, with its disheveled and tattered rags. They tend to like showy and prestigious costumes, like Crimson Peak’s or even Brooklyn’s. The Revenant was thus joined by - what else - Mad Max, and three non-Best Picture nominees, Cinderella, Carol, and The Danish Girl. Clearly, there were too many highbrow movies this year to leave room for what would have been shoo-in nominations any other year like Crimson or even Bridge of Spies. Indeed, Sandy Powell, past winner for The Young Victoria, The Aviator, and Shakespeare in Love, is a double nominee for designing Cate Blanchett’s outfits - as the titular heroine in Carol, and as the main antagonist in Cinderella.

Vote splitting does not come into play here, as Powell’s name is not on the ballot. And while the nomination for Carol is welcome and deserving, they’ve never rewarded what amounts to essentially a subtle, everyday wardrobe - for that reason, for example, Atonement’s beautiful gowns lost to Elizabeth: The Golden Age’s showy designs. They want actual costumes. For that same reason, I think The Revenant is out, as is Mad Max’s stunning nomination here.

I actually think this category is between the beautiful and obvious costumes of The Danish Girl, and the lavish gowns in Cinderella. Any other year, I would have no problem predicting Cinderella for the win - Alice in Wonderland, Marie Antoinette, and The Great Gatsby are examples of non-prestige films that have ousted even Best Picture nominees in this category in recent years. Still, with the spread the wealth approach likely even more a factor given the large number of respected movies, they may feel tempted to go for The Danish Girl. This will be a tough call.

Will win: Cinderella
Could win: The Danish Girl

Best Production Design

By now, you should know better than to ask. The nominees are Mad Max, The Revenant, The Martian, Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl. The category formerly known as Art Direction, which is basically set construction and decoration, is a personal favorite. The ambiance of the movie is a key element to the atmospheric tone.

My “go for the Best Picture nominee when in doubt” theory runs into trouble here again. It was again stunning to see The Revenant show up here. Outdoor sceneries are rarely nominated here - and none has ever won. Still, while the entire Academy clearly loves The Revenant (and this may translate into a Best Picture win), I don’t think it will be the first outdoor ambiance movie to win here. True, The Revenant has those frontier cabin designs to prop it up; not so for Mad Max, set almost entirely outdoors or in caves. And while the designs of the vehicles are nothing to sneeze at, I would not count on it to win here.

This is another category where The Martian could win its token Oscar. After all, the key scenes take place in the Hab, and the construction of the potato field is a memorable part of the movie. Nevertheless, the art direction in The Martian is not showy enough, in my view, to win.

For the win, I’d go for the traditional, classic sets of Bridge of Spies or The Danish Girl. If you ask me (and you’re not asking me), the Copenhagen neighborhood and the apartment interiors in The Danish Girl are lavish and luscious and deserve the win. But to expect The Danish Girl to pull it off against Best Picture nominees in two categories seems risky (but, again, many movies have pulled off the double costumes/art direction win over Best Picture favorites - three of the last five winners of this category did so with a costumes win over Best Picture nominees). For that reason, I’m predicting the also marvelous office decorations, and the Berlin scenery to take it. It is square up the alley of past wins like Lincoln or The Great Gatsby.

It would be a shame, in a way, to see Mad Max or the Revenant show up in costumes and art direction - then you know members just blindly filled out their ballots.

Will Win: Bridge of Spies
Could Win: The Danish Girl

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