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Hidden Figures Stuns at SAG

Last but not least of course were the SAG Awards on Sunday. The big story of the night of course was that Hidden Figures triumphed there, which seemed to be a fitting end to a show that contained political speeches all night. An emotional Taraji P. Henson stood up along her fellow cast members to celebrate inclusion, diversity, and achievement. It was a moving and touching moment, though one that is unlikely to be repeated this awards season. With no BAFTA nod and no Best Director nomination at the Oscars, it just doesn’t seem “highbrow” enough for them. Not that La La Land is, but whatever. The win for the feel-good movie reminds me of when The Help won here. It was a true ensemble, a liked movie, and one that had no chance at the Oscars. I expect this same pattern to hold.

The other acting races went more or less as expected. Emma Stone triumphed for La La Land, and some will try to say that she only won because this was the only space they could reward the musical, but don’t believe it. She has won the Globe and now this, and is very likely to triumph at BAFTA too, where the portrayal of an American First Lady is unlikely to resonate. Her path to the Oscar is clear and free of any impediment.

Slightly surprising was Denzel Washington’s win for Fences. Casey Affleck was the favorite but with the allegations of sexual harassment, his tepid campaigning, and the fact that Washington had never won here, all combined to make it a problem for the Manchester by the Sea actor. Can this happen again at the Oscars? It will be harder to tell. Washington has two Oscars already, so he’s not overdue. But the temptation to have three black actors win for the first time ever may be enough to make the Academy go for him, and it would be deserved. He’s very good in Fences. It will be the only interesting race left to watch this year.

Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali triumphed early for Fences and Moonlight, respectively, as both continue their pretty unstoppable march to the podium at the Academy Awards. Both gave overtly political speeches, particularly Ali with respect to religion and tolerance. All of this was in keeping in line with the political speeches of the TV winners earlier in the night.

Next Up: The Directors

The Directors Guild of America is the last of the important trifecta, and they will hand out their awards this coming Saturday. There, the nominees are the main three - Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Kenneth Lonergan for La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea. respectively. They are joined, as they are in the Oscar race, by Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, and by Garth Davis, who directed Lion but did not get an Oscar nomination.

Do you have any doubt as to who is going to win? Not really. Yes, the splits have become much more common in recent years, but there are arguably reasons for that, most of which have to do with the nature of the movies in the race. For example, there have been masterful directorial technical achievements that didn’t quite carry the “prestige” title to push them through to the very top.

That is not the case this year. There is no Revenant or Gravity and, indeed, arguably La La Land is that story. It took Chazelle a lot to make and it is mostly a fruit of his imagination. I’m not sold on the La La Land Best Picture train, but if it deserves one award it is likely this one for its immensely talented young director. I predict he will win this Saturday, and then again on February 26th.

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