They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

What NYFF Told Us About the Oscar Race

By J. Don Birnam

October 26, 2017

Walter White, Michael Scott, and Morpheus walk into a bar...

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Could This Be The Year of the December Best Picture Winner?

So what does this mean? Does it leave us exactly where we started before Telluride? Dunkirk is the name of the game? I am not so sure. The TIFF win for Three Billboards means it is at least in second place and people keep having good reactions to it. We will have to wait to see how the first awards shake out.

Of course, in years like the Argo year, where a clear consensus had not emerged, Oscar pundits will say well maybe it is something we have not seen. That time, everyone bet on Zero Dark Thirty but the movie suffered a quick political takedown. This year the movie could be Steven Spielberg’s The Post, but since it is also political, will it suffer the same fate? Or you could point to the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel-Day Lewis film coming out in December, but do you really really think a Paul Thomas Anderson movie has a shot at the Oscars? I do not.




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Given that past decade and more, I am still going to bet that we have already seen the Best Picture winner, but just do not know it yet. Once these last few movies screen, we will know more. Until then, I must admit my guess is simply that, a guess based on past results.

Up Next: We Will Have a Special Early Peek at This Year’s Intriguing Best Foreign Language Film Race, and then the Debut of Our Oscars Tracker Page for 2017!

Here I am on Twitter @jdonbirnam and Instagram @awards_predix.


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