They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
On the Eve of Oscar Nods, Do We Know Anything?
By J. Don Birnam
January 18, 2018
From there it starts to get trickier. The only two other movies that the model has above 50% change are Dunkirk, which is, to be fair, a lock, but is suffering from the lack of SAG and WGA nominations, and Call Me By Your Name. That movie, though it has missed at SAG and DGA and is thus teetering under the model, seems safer to me. Consider that it has the important ACE nod, and that it did well with the Brits. It is a movie with strong support there, getting even a director nod. I would be surprised (though not floored given these numbers) if it missed out.
But that leaves us with only six. That has never happened under the Best Picture sliding scale. That is where the model is in trouble and where this year gets confusing and unpredictable. There are over 21 movies that got repeated guild mentions, including movies that are not getting a BP nod like Orient Express and Star Wars. But, clearly, there is guild support for a lot of stuff.
It seems safe to say that The Big Sick is in. While it has few below the line guild support (hence its lower chances), a PGA, SAG, BAFTA, WGA combo seems hard to argue with. It is not a movie that is going to get costume or production nods (though don’t tell that to Lady Bird). It is, like CMBYN, most likely in, but don’t be surprised if not.
Ok, so seven, that feels more normal. What is next? Next is a movie that I have listed in two places at once as likely and hoping for a miracle. What to make of The Post’s confounding awards race? Hard to tell. It has PGA and ACE from the Guilds and that is good, but most of the rest of its support comes from non-Oscar groups like the NBR and the Critics Choice. The Critics clearly like The Post, but the industry does not seem to. A lack of DGA, SAG, WGA, and, most stunningly, BAFTA, will be hard to overcome. It is hard to bet against a Spielberg film (all of his last have gotten in), but this could break the streak.
From then on it is anybody’s guess and those movies will likely stay on the outside looking in, although I, Tonya and Mudbound have passionate support enough to bump them in. I would not expect anything past those top ten to get anywhere near a nod, despite the last-minute surge for Molly’s Game. And columns will be written years from now about whatever happened to The Florida Project.
In For Sure
Lady Bird
Get Out
Three Billboards
Shape of Water
Likely In
Dunkirk
CMBYN
The Big Sick
The Post
Hoping for a Surprise
The Post
Mudbound
Molly’s Game
I, Tonya
Hoping for a Miracle
Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars
Logan
Darkest Hour
Wonder Woman
The Disaster Artist
Just Forget It
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread
Baby Driver
Downsizing
Up Next: The Third and Final Phase Begins with Oscar Nominations on Tuesday
|
|
|
PGA |
DGA |
SAG |
WGA |
BAFTA |
Globes |
ACE |
ASC |
ADG |
CDG |
NBR |
Critics Choice |
Weighed Total |
|
Lady Bird
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
94.9%
|
|
Get Out
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
89.9%
|
|
Three Billboards
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
84.1%
|
|
Shape of Water
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
79.1%
|
|
Dunkirk
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
74.9%
|
|
CMBYN
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
51.6%
|
|
The Big Sick
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
45.8%
|
|
The Post
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
44.1%
|
|
I, Tonya
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
38.3%
|
|
Mudbound
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
|
38.3%
|
|
Molly's Game
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
|
30%
|
|
Wonder Woman
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
25.80%
|
|
Disaster Artist
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
20.8%
|
|
Darkest Hour
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
X
|
18.3%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Continued:
1
2
3
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|
|
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