New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Best Costume Design

In the costumes category, Jacqueline Durran earned her 5th and 6th nods for Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour. This is not the first time this happens, indeed it happened as recently as two years ago when Sandy Powell got double nods for Carol and Cinderella, only to lose the Oscar to Mad Max. In any case it seems as if the award is between the BAFTA winner, Phantom Thread by past winner Mark Bridges (who costumed The Artist) and Luis Sequeira, earning his first nomination for The Shape of Water. Consolata Boyle, on her third nomination in the category for her work in Victoria & Abdul, is just an onlooker.

The BAFTA guessed wrong last year, going for Jackie while the Academy went for Fantastic Beasts, but, before that, they had a string of consecutive guesses right stretching back through 2008, a pretty spectacular stat. That's 8-1 since the Best Picture expansion.

What about the Guild? The CDG's Contemporary award has never gone to the eventual Oscar winner (in the 19 year history of the awards), reflecting that the Oscars do not really go for that type of costumes. This year, the trend will continue, as they picked the not-nominated I, Tonya over Best Picture contender Three Billboards. Their period piece award does better, with 7 out of 19 wins, though last year they went for the not-nominated Hidden Figures. This time around, it was Best Picture contender Shape of Water that triumphed here, over the supposed front-runner in the race, Phantom Thread. So, watch out for that.

Given the above, I'm playing the odds and picking BAFTA, but note of course that they do like to reward technical movies and/or sweep here. Though Best Picture-wannabe La La Land did not win here, they did go for the super different costumes of Mad Max on its way to a huge tech sweep. On the other hand, The Shape of Water's costumes are not as over the top (and they like that in this category) which means Shape or, heck, even Beauty and the Beast, are real threats here.

Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water

Best Production Design

The Production Design Oscar, which goes hand in hand with Costume Design more often than not, does appear to be going in a different direction this time around. And, like Costumes, they are not afraid to award a non-Best Picture nominee here, doing so five total times since the 2000s. But that will not be a problem this year.

The Art Directors’ Guild has three awards each year, so it has been able to guess the eventual Oscar winner more often than not in the last nine years, usually in the period film category. Last year, however, it was their contemporary film pick, La La Land, that eventually took home the Best Art Direction Oscar. The one year they had a complete strikeout was in 2013, when Lincoln surprised everyone at the Academy Awards. The ADG picked Blade Runner Logan (not up for an Oscar) and The Shape of Water as its winner.

The BAFTAs have done slightly more poorly here than in other races, going “only” 5 for 8 and incorrectly picking Fantastic Beasts (not a BP nominee!) here last year. This year they went for The Shape of Water.

Given the foregoing, I would be surprised if the win went to Blade Runner 2049, despite the ADG win, given that it seems to lack key precursors. The same can be said of the lush and lavish interior set designs of Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour. I admire both, but not a single precursor win makes it highly unlikely—the only precedent for that is Lincoln, and good luck randomly and correctly guessing such an outcome at the Oscars.

It seems almost as if The Shape of Water will win this by default, with dark and rich sets not dissimilar to Lincoln’s, actually, whereas Dunkirk’s set design seems quaint by comparison.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Darkest Hour

Continued:       1       2       3