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Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography is another prestigious tech award that sometimes holds clues to the Best Picture race. Best Picture contenders have a string of 11 consecutive victories here. The last time this did not happen was back to back in 2006 and 2007 when Memoirs of a Geisha and Pan’s Labyrinth (Del Toro’s last awards contender) did it. Before that you have to go to Legends of the Fall in 1995. Indeed, from Braveheart in 1996 through American Beauty, the winner of this prize was also your Best Picture winner except once. Last year, after Emmanuel Lubezki finally released his three-peat stranglehold on the category, the prize went to La La Land.

What about precursor stats? The BAFTA liked Blade Runner: 2049 this year, as did the American Society of Cinematographers. The BAFTA missed the first three years of the Best Picture expansion, but since they changed their voting system in 2012 to match the Academy’s, they have correctly predicted this race every single time. The ASC, meanwhile, gave the same five nominations as the Oscars did for only the second time in their history (the first was last year), but their record since the expansion is spotty. Last year they went for Lion. The three years prior they went for Lubezki, but those were easy years.

The two years prior to that they incorrectly went for The Three of Life (again Lubezki) and Skyfall, Deakins’ third win at the ASC at the time. This brings us to the elephant in the Deakins room.

First, you can probably knock out the dark and moody lighting of Darkest Hour. Though it is my favorite and one of the most showy, there is too much else going on in this race to put any serious money on it. Meanwhile, while Rachel Morrison became the first woman ever nominated in this race, for Mudbound (this was the last of the Oscar categories without a woman nominee), I am not sure this will translate into a victory. To be sure, some voters will lean in, but will it be enough?

The three difficult choices are the beautiful and varied cinematography of The Shape of Water, the overwhelmingly powerful camera work in Dunkirk (particularly the stunning aerial shots), and the work of Master Deakins in Blade Runner 2049. This is tough one folks. Although the work in Shape is powerful, it is not present most of the film. But non-Best Picture winners like La La Land, The Revenant, and Gravity have all won here, so it could be its consolation prize.

Others will say that Deakins is obviously overdue, so go there. Of course he has won the precursors below, only to lose the Oscar, including in the early 2000s when he won BAFTA and ASC and still lost. This is a close race where taking your emotions out of it will help you get it correct.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Best Film Editing

Finally, the crown of the below-the-line races, the Film Editing Oscar that is so important only a couple of movies in the last 30 years have won Best Picture without being nominated here (Birdman and Ordinary People, so watch out Get Out and Lady Bird).

First the stats: since the Best Picture expansion in 2009 (true, small sample sizes), the BAFTA has gotten this one right 6 out of 8 times, including three years in a row. Last year, for example, they picked Hacksaw Ridge, which should have warned us about the upcoming Oscar win for that movie in that race. The two movies they missed—Rush in 2014 and Senna in 2012—were not even nominated for the Best Film Editing Oscar. Those Oscars went, surprisingly, to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo in 2012, and more expectedly to Gravity in 2014. This year, the BAFTA picked Baby Driver.

Over on the guild side of things, the ACE Eddie award is another guild with a mediocre track record. Since the expansion, they are 4 for 8 if you consider their drama prize, while their comedy editing prize (which last year went for La La Land) hasn’t predicted the Best Editing Oscar since Chicago in 2003. This year, the prizes went to Dunkirk and I, Tonya. One has to wonder if the preferential ballot or the expansion has something to do with this. In the 1990s, the ACE Editor guild predicted the Oscar win 9 out of 10 times, a feat they matched in the 2000s. But not since.

As for a non-Best Picture nominee ousting a contender here, it happens every few years. Before the aforementioned Fincher movie about Lisbeth Salander triumphed over four Best Picture nominees in 2012, The Bourne Ultimatumdid it in 2008 (also winning Sound Oscars), and it was Black Hawk Down in 2002. Both had several other tech nods.

This year, you can probably quickly knock out Three Billboards, The Shape of Water,and I, Tonya. These movies have nothing going for them in this category—they have little to no precursors, are not action movies, and one of them is not even a Best Picture contender. I would be floored if any of those pulled it off and, frankly, if it’s one of the two nominated movies you can probably be sure it will win Best Picture too.

It really is between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, and I am impossibly torn. The Chris Nolan movie has the obvious editing of the three-part story structure. The other one is an action movie, fast-paced and loud. I am trying hard not to let my own love for Dunkirk cloud this (so you have been warned) and I may still switch this. This one will be a tough call.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

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