Prophecy: Watchmen
By BOP Staff
December 11, 2008
David Mumpower: In a box office era wherein the surest way to have a mega-sized opening is to create a comic book adaptation, Watchmen is one of the oddest of curiosities. The only graphic novel ever to win the Hugo Award, Alan Moore's masterpiece is a cerebral examination of a dystopian society wherein Nixon never ceded power. Thanks to the beyond-nuclear option created by a human weapon called Dr. Manhattan, Nixon confounds the Cold War threat that is Russia all the way through the mid '80s. But Watchmen is far from just a political polemic. It is also the forerunner to the modern world of comics, the very genesis for titles such as Batman Begins that explore the mythos of why a grown man would put on a costume and intentionally split his personality.
Told over a series of 12 issues, Watchmen revolutionized the way people look at their imaginary superheroes. During the 20-some years since its release, multiple studios have attempted to create a respectful adaptation of this literary masterpiece. All of them had eventually washed their hands of the idea and given up until Zach Snyder entered the picture. Told by Warner Bros. that the movie would be made no matter what, the director of 300 and the Dawn of the Dead re-make made the determination that he would rather try and possibly fail then allow someone else who didn't love the story to completely bungle it. This willingness to avoid the basic tenets of risk-averse Hollywood impresses the staff at BOP. Even so, it does nothing to re-assure us that what should have been the finest of limited run HBO series will make for a quality movie. Too much truncation of the story would be required, at least that had been our belief prior to the release of the teaser. This clip reflects a much more faithful adaptation of Moore's work than we had believed possible. Our hopes have been raised.
Do you believe Watchmen will perform on a par with Snyder's last work, 300? If not, are you expecting larger or smaller numbers and why? Also, do you expect to like this movie?
Scott Lumley: My expectations are simple, Watchmen is going to be a monster. The only question is just how big of a monster is it going to be?
The Hollywood Stock Exchange has Watchmen pegged at about $180 million, but honestly, HSX traditionally tends to undersell movies like this. Dark Knight sat at $240 million right up until opening weekend, then the price got seriously adjusted.
Also, Watchmen is getting a grade A marketing scheme thrown its way. A ton of trailers in front of The Dark Knight plus some absolutely cerebral and true to source imagery are pumping up the expectations for this film in a big way. Then again, the movie has a weird opening date for what appears to be a tentpole release. I like the symmetry of the 03/06/09 release date, but I think it's a bad idea. The film is going to need serious power to open huge in March. It should realistically be bumped to May to give it a better shot at dominating what appears to be a weak upcoming summer.
I personally think that Watchmen is going to be big, probably somewhere in the $200 - $225 million range when the whole thing is said and done. But if the studio gets smart and bumps it up to May, then that total is going to need significant adjustment upwards.
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