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Monsters vs. Aliens

Our first computer animated film of 2009, Monsters vs. Aliens opens to pretty solid $16.7 million. March is uncharted territory for Pixar Animation, with most of their releases hitting in the summer season or November. I am drawn to a non-Pixar Disney release, Meet the Robinsons, as it opened on this weekend two years ago. That may only have earned $7.5 million on opening day, but I like the trajectory it took over the rest of the weekend, leading to 3.3 weekend multiplier. Giving that to Monsters vs. Aliens means it lands with $55.1 million for the weekend.

The Haunting in Connecticut

Another week, another inexplicably large opening for a horror title. The Haunting in Connecticut earned $9.6 million on Friday. Good thing with a title like that, they have an entire 50 film franchise just waiting. Standard horror film rules apply here, so look for a weekend of $23.9 million.

12 Rounds

While right now, you *can* see John Cena in theaters, that doesn't mean anyone did. 12 Rounds earned $1.8 million on Friday, actually throwing under the $2.3 million The Marine opened to back in October of 2006. Somehow that managed a 3.0 multiplier opening weekend but I don't see 12 Rounds quite matching that. Call it $4.8 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Knowing is off a pretty much to be expected 48% to $4.7 million. Considering it didn't drive off a cliff like so many films this year, this can almost be considered a win. The overall weekend decline will stay under 50% as Knowing should have a second weekend of $13.8 million.

I Love You, Man has the best hold of last week's openers, down 37% from last Friday to $4 million. Give the bromance $12 million in its second week.

Duplicity drops a rather surprising 52%, proving my suspicions that Clive Owen has become box office poison. The weekend logically should get it under 50% but this film has been behaving unexpectedly so who knows? Look for a second weekend of $7.4 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected Rank	Film	Estimated Gross
1	Monsters vs. Aliens	55.1
2	The Haunting in Connecticut	23.9
3	Knowing	13.8
4	I Love You, Man	12.0
5	Duplicity	7.4
6	12 Rounds	4.8
7	Race to Witch Mountain	4.7
8	Watchmen	2.5
9	Taken	2.4
10	Last House on the Left	2.4