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With Emmy nominations being unveiled on Thursday morning, I thought it a good idea to analyze some of the best programs on television and decide which ones have a shot at scoring at least a nomination in this year’s Best Drama and Comedy categories.

What’s exciting about this year’s race is that we arguably don’t know at this point in time which drama and which comedy will take home the prizes. Unlike previous years, where you could smell a Mad Men or 30 Rock win from miles away, both shows have brutal competition this year.

I’d venture to guess, actually, that even though nominations for Mad Men and 30 Rock are a foregone conclusion, neither show is a lock at winning the respective prizes.

Here, now, are my thoughts on which programs have a shot at landing a nomination. Those in the “I’d bet my firstborn on it” category are definites, “Have a good shot” are probables and “Dark horses” are ones that may surprise.

Up first: the dramas!

I’d bet my firstborn on it

• Breaking Bad: This show hands down had one of the best (if not the best) seasons of television in 2010. Breaking Bad was consistently TV’s most intense program week after week and put most everything else to shame. Industry buzz was rampant. Celebs like Aziz Ansari, Mindy Kaling and Patton Oswalt tweeted about the show like they were paid to do so. Breaking Bad will definitely be nominated. The question is: Will it take down goliath (Mad Men)?
  
  
  
  

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• Dexter: While on the topic of great TV seasons – well, I’m also going in alphabetical order here – Dexter had its best season to date in 2009. John Lithgow played one hell of a creepfest. And “The Getaway”, Dexter’s season finale, ended the series’ fourth year with one of television’s most shocking [spoiler alert!] ever. (Ever!) Having earned nods for Best Drama in 2008 and 2009, Dexter is a lock for at least a nomination.
  
  
• Lost: In case you don’t own a television, ABC aired Lost’s series finale in May after six seasons worth of 121 episodes. Though the series’ average viewership waned with each passing year, the show’s significance in TV history and its influence on pop culture simply can’t be denied. I wouldn’t expect the show to win – my money’s on Breaking Bad or Mad Men – but a nomination would be a great way for the academy to say publicly, “Hey, thanks for a good ride, Darlton.”
  
  
• Mad Men: Having been nominated for and won Best Drama every year it’s been eligible, a nomination for Mad Men is a no-brainer. However. Matthew Weiner, if you’re reading this, I wouldn’t be so confident that you’ve got this one in the bag. While season three had its fair share of awesome episodes – “My Old Kentucky Home,” “Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency” and “Shut the Door. Have a Seat” come to mind – the ‘60s-era period piece wasn’t nearly as consistent as some of TV’s other great drama series. In other words, Mad Men’s competition closed the gap, and it’ll take some serious campaigning for Mad Men to three-peat.

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