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When it comes to predicting who's going to win, the Golden Globes can be very tricky, and that's really the only way I can phrase it without using lots and lots of expletives. Why are the Globes so hard to predict? Mostly it's because every time you think you think of a rule by which they vote, they break it. The Academy has a bunch of rules that you know they are going to stick with year in and year out (Best Picture nominees typically win in the screenplay categories; any film not nominated for Film Editing won't win Best Picture; Greg Russell will never win a Sound Mixing Oscar; etc.) and knowing those rules makes it much easier to predict what will win in certain categories.

The Globes also have some of those rules, but instead of being helpful they are often misleading, because the Globes are far more likely to break their rules than the Academy is. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association spent the better part of the last decade proving that their Best Picture - Drama winner will be the more traditional film. That's why Brokeback Mountain beat Crash, The Aviator beat Million Dollar Baby, Atonement beat No Country for Old Men, and Avatar beat The Hurt Locker. So, last year the obvious Best Picture - Drama choice was The King's Speech, because everyone thought the HFPA would be a bunch of old fuddy-duddies who wouldn't be hip to The Social Network's lingo. Except they were, and The Social Network swept the Globes.

Which brings me to my next point: does the HFPA block vote, or do they prefer to spread the wealth? My instincts tell me they like to spread the wealth, but that might be because the first year I was following the Oscars was 2002, when The Hours won Picture - Drama and Actress - Drama, Gangs of New York won Director and Song, and About Schmidt won Actor - Drama and Screenplay. But when you look at their history you will see that since 2002, four films have won four Golden Globes, which is remarkable considering that the most any film can win is nine.

This means that, unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict the Globes based on their trends, so we have to actually look at the nominees. I hate doing that, so I'll do the best I can with history on my side. Are there any films that look like they have sweep potential this year? I wouldn't be surprised if The Descendants won Picture, Actor, and Screenplay, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it only won Screenplay. The Artist seems like a sure thing for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy, but can it win Best Director or Best Score? There are several categories that could go either way, which certainly makes things more fun, but also much, much more frustrating.

Best Foreign Language Film

The heavy favorite in this category is the Iranian drama A Separation, which has been lauded by several critics groups and is also the current favorite to win the Oscar for this category. But there is a wild card this year, and it is Angelina Jolie. American films have been nominated in this category in the past, with mixed results. Marc Forster's The Kite Runner lost in 2007, and Clint Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima won in 2006, beating Mel Gibson's Apocalypto among others. Jolie's film, In the Land of Blood and Honey, is a politically motivated film, which usually plays well with the HFPA, but it has not gotten the glowing reviews that A Separation has. I think that the HFPA really just wanted to ensure that Jolie would show up, but that they will give the award Agshar Farhadi for A Separation.

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